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First National Preventive Health Research
Programme
YELP Holistic First Business Plan
YELP Holistic First Business Plan Defined Terms
SWOT Analysis
Executive
Summary
Deliverables And Costs
Snapshot Page
To 10 Benchmark Techniques
Defined Terms for Five YELP Business Plans
Second National Preventive Health Research Programme
Bohemian Teenagers Arts Assistance Programme
First BTAAP
Business Plan
Bohemian Teenagers Show Choir Programme
Defined Terms BTSCP
Second BTAAP Business Plan
Bohemian Teenagers Symphony Orchestras
Programme
Defined Terms - Bohemian
Teenager Symphony Orchestra Programme
Third BTAAP Business Plan
Bohemian Teenager Ballet
& Modern Dance
Programme
Defined Terms BTB&MDCP
2. Snapshot
of
Fifteen Problems,
which include the
Taskforce's Three Public Health Risks, facing the
Western
World
due to current
Lifestyle Behaviour which
have demographic and socio-economic influences
I.
Climate Change
"could reduce global annual economic growth by 20% or more"
Sir Nicholas Stern
In May
'07, many eminent scientists,
ecologists and climatologists
at the ninth session of the InterGovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Working Group III in Bangkok -
(i) advocated that
"man's energy consumption behaviour is materially
accelerating the planet's rate of warming"; and
(ii) pronounced that
a
"shift in lifestyles"
is required to mitigate
climate change.
In October 2007 these scientists were
awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
The
Garnaut Climate Change
Review was the first comprehensive Australian
assessment of the economic costs of both unmitigated climate change and
mitigation action. This
provided, for the first time, a complete picture of the potential economic
costs of the decisions Australia makes in its response to
Climate Change.
Economic modelling of climate change and climate change
mitigation policy over long time periods involves many uncertainties and
requires a range of assumptions.
Professor Garnaut noted that the results of
the Garnaut Review’s modelling efforts should be considered illustrative of the
-
(i) broad magnitude of costs of unmitigated climate change; and
(ii) benefits and
costs that might be experienced if the world was to collectively act to mitigate
climate change.
There is a risk that temperature rises—and therefore
climate change impacts—will be much higher than anticipated, because of
unforeseen feedback effects. For example, temperature increases above certain
thresholds could trigger the release of much greater volumes of greenhouse gases
from carbon and methane stores on earth and in the oceans, resulting in further
temperature increases and greater impacts on human civilisation and ecosystems.
These potential impacts are highly uncertain and were not modelled by the
Garnaut Review.
The costs of mitigation action to
meet national emissions reduction targets will also depend on a number of
factors (Garnaut, 2008), including:
• The economic
growth outlook.
• The
cost-effectiveness of the instruments chosen to achieve the reductions (such as
emissions trading).
• The international
context.
• Market prices of
key resources such as petroleum, coal and natural gas.
• The technologies
that are, or will become available, to reduce emissions.
The estimated costs of climate change and mitigation actions
on Australia are generally expressed in terms of broad changes to
GDP, GNP, real household consumption, real wages and export volumes.
These are compared with a ‘business-as usual’ scenario (i.e. no additional
mitigation action) and a reference scenario of a world without climate change.
The Commonwealth Treasury (and Garnaut) modelling were
undertaken prior to the global financial crisis. Treasury modelling focused on the medium to
long term transformation of the Australian economy. Market fluctuations, such as
the current global financial crisis, will not materially affect the analysis
(Commonwealth Treasury, 2009).
In the ‘business as usual’ scenario modelled by the
Garnaut Climate Change
Review, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are projected to
reach
1,600 parts per million (ppm) by 2100, resulting in global temperature rises of
5.1–6.6°C. The Garnaut Review noted recent international modelling that
global GDP could fall by around 8 per cent by 2100 as a result of climate change.
In turn, the costs of unmitigated climate change to Australia could involve
an approximate fall of 7.5 per cent in real GNP and an approximate 9.4 per cent
reduction in real wages by 2100 (Garnaut, 2008b). The costs of unmitigated climate change are clearly significant
and they increase more rapidly in the second half of
the century. The Garnaut Review suggested that other
costs such as changes to building codes and planning schemes, and the
temperature impacts on fisheries and forestry production could contribute an
additional 30% to the economic costs of unmitigated climate change.
The
CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reported in March 2010 that
Australia's average temperature has continued to rise each decade since the mid
20th century which has resulted in increased droughts, sea levels rises
encroaching valuable residential properties, increased severity/frequency of
many natural disasters (bushfires, cyclones, hailstorms and floods), increased
road maintenance costs, reduced Australian flora and fauna. All three
tiers of government are expending many millions of dollars annually on a broad
range of remedial treatments.
Conservatively,
Climate Change, and
efforts to mitigate it (incl bureaucracy costs), are costing the Australian economy over $20 billion
annually.
II. Burgeoning
Baby Boomer Health System
Costs
falling upon a reducing tax payer pool
Esteemed USA and
Australian economists predict
Burgeoning
Baby Boomer Health & Aged Care Costs (medical prescriptions,
aged care and aged pensions) to
fall upon a smaller
tax payer pool due to -
¨ insufficient
superannuation provisioning by lower income earners;
¨ insufficient pension
provisioning by Governments for the acute increase in demand due to
Baby Boomers living appreciably longer due to medications (ie. antibiotics,
cholesterol / statins, anti-coagulants and high blood pressure treatments);
¨ lower birth rates in
higher socio-economic countries negatively impacting the available pool of
future tax payers; and
¨ China's
one child policy similarly diminishing China's fiscal resources.
III. Obesity cost Australia $56 billion in 2005 and is
increasing
"Obesity
on the rise in Australia" article of
Tues 7 Aug '07 mentions an ABS
report "Australian Social Trends 2007"
that identifies two million more Australian adults are classified as
Overweight
or
Obese
than in 1995.
In 2005,
7.4 million adults - 54% of the adult population - were classified as
overweight or obese. Whereas 10 years earlier, 9% less, 45% of the adult
population were overweight or obese, posing a major risk to long-term health
by increasing the risk of chronic illnesses. Related health problems
include diabetes, cardiovascular disease and some cancers.
"It has been estimated
that obesity and its associated illnesses cost Australian society and
governments a total of $21 billion in 2005," the report says.
A report in the Medical Journal of Australia in March 2010 by Professor Stephen Colagiuri, Professor of Metabolic Health at the Uni of Sydney,
showed he and his co-authors analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study, collected in 1999-2000 and 2004-2005,
which showed that government subsidies cost another $35.6 billion in 2005,
thereby aggregating the cost of
Obese and
Overweight Australians at $56 billion in 2005.
IV. Social
Cost of Drug Abuse in Australia exceeds $50 billion annually -
Annual
social costs of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs grew to $56.1 billion in
2004-5.
Counting the cost: estimates of the social costs of drug abuse in Australia
in 1998-9 -
Monograph Series No. 49
- by Collins & Lapsley
estimate the aggregate annual social cost to Australia of drug abuse for
'98-'99 was $34.44 billion:
Relying on data about the
recent impact of amphetamine-type stimulants (Meth or ICE) particularly on the
young, casual empiricism suggests that if the
authors, Collins & Lapsley, repeated their 3rd analysis for 2007/08, the
annual
social cost
to Australia of drug abuse exceeds $50 billion.
V.
Generation Gap of teenage kids relating to their parents is wider than
ever before, resulting in diminished
Family Unit Cohesion
The
Generation Gap of older and
younger family
members
understanding, relating and assisting each other
is wider than ever before, resulting in diminished
Family Unit Cohesion
ie. reduced love, caring and co-operation within the fundamental
social structure within societies for people related by blood or marriage.
The economic cost and lost productivity
due to teenagers rebelling against societal norms has never been
higher.
Recreational Drug Use and problem gambling are often associated
with escapism due to dissatisfaction with the
Generation Gap.
The cost upon the Australian economy of
unsatisfactory
Family Unit Cohesion from the broadening
Generation Gap
is almost unquantifiable. However, regrettably it would have to
exceed $10 billion annually.
VI. Adults are overusing anti-depressants to
treat a normal illness affecting one in four Australian women and one in six
men
-
Each year almost 800,000
Australian adults will
experience a depressive illness.
-
Depression is the leading cause
of
Disability in Australia.
-
Depression
counts for more days
lost to the workplace than
industrial action.
-
World Health Organisation has predicted that by 2020
Depression will be the second
biggest health problem
globally.
-
Depression is the third most
common cause of illness among
women and the tenth most common
cause among men.
A litany of medical
journals from all corners of the
Western World exists which
chronicle the vast prescription of anti-depressants
since the early '90s, and the serious emotional problems they
have caused to a not insignificant percentage of the
population.
Use of antidepressants in the
Australian population, 1975–2002
VII.
One in 5 Australians
is
Disabled - Federal Government assistance approaches $7b annually. Cost to the public purse, foregone productivity and
impinged
QOL for
many of the
Disabled
are all large issues. Access
Economics' "The high price of
pain: the economic impact of persistent pain in Australia -
Nov 2007"
reports that
Chronic Pain, some of
which is exacerbated by constrained
Lifestyle Behaviour,
explained in the
Biopsychosocial
Behaviour Model, cost Australia
$34.3 billion in 2007.
VIII.
Coronary Artery Disease
is still the single largest cause of premature death in Australia, according to
the
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.
IX. Hypertension
is the most frequently managed problem in general practice in Australia,
accounting for 8.6% of encounters and 7.9% of prescriptions in general practice
X.
Colon and breast cancer
Of the 37,907 deaths in Australia
from cancer in 2003:
*
2,720 died from breast cancer
*
3,012 died from colon cancer
XI.
Asthma
afflicts >2.25 million Australians which is >10% of the 22m population.
People with asthma -
(i) report poorer
general health and quality of life than people without asthma; and
(ii) suffer from anxiety and
depression than people without asthma.
A greater
proportion of people with asthma had days away from work or study in the last
two weeks (11.4%) than people without asthma (7.9%) preceding a survey.
XII.
Dementia
financial cost across Australia in 2002 was
$6.6 billion – over $40,000 pa per person with Dementia - by 2051 Dementia’s
financial impact will total 3.3% of GDP (gross domestic product).
XIII.
Lower
Back Pain is the most
prevalent and costly musculoskeletal condition in Australia, estimated to cost
up to $1 billion pa with indirect costs exceeding $8 billion pa. It is also the
most common health condition causing older Australians to be absent from the
labour force.
XIV.
Osteoporosis
- Total annual cost in Australia,
which includes carers and lost income, is estimated to be $7 billion (or $20
million every day)
XV
Arthritis -
Total cost to Australian economy
estimated by Access Economics in 2007 was $23.9 billion annually.
Conclusion re the Fifteen Problems:
Global population,
economic growth and the pace of modern life are all racing
ahead at an ever increasing speed which collectively is -
(a) warming and polluting our
ecological atmosphere;
(b) gouging the Earth's limited
Fossil
Fuels
with insufficient regard for the energy needs of future generations;
(c) exacerbating
the planet's future economic potential;
(d) damaging our
physical and mental health;
(e) encouraging excessive
Recreational Drug Abuse as many
citizens
Crave Harmful Habitual Stress Releases;
and
(f) in the particular case of
Australia, paying little heed to setting up a
framework for
Abled Participant Assistants to
assist on a structured basis some of the 20% of fellow Australians who are
Disabled (who often through no fault of their own,
got dealt a poor hand in life) to enjoy a
REA and
be more self-sufficient, empowered to higher productivity
and enhanced
QOL.
Economic Materialism and associated higher
GHGs is skewed towards
higher socio-economic neighbourhoods.
Obesity, reliance on
anti-depressants, diminished
Family Unit Cohesion from a widening
Generation Gap
and problem gambling are more prevalent in lower socio-economic regions.
Current government policy
assigns little regard for -
(i)
Gen X and
Gen Y paying for
Baby
Boomers which are overly reliant on costly medications due to
inter alia
not maintaining a
Healthy Diet and which rarely includes participating in a
REA, particularly in lower socio-economic
neighbourhoods; and
(ii)
conserving
Fossil Fuels for the future inhabitants of the planet who would be
able to burn
GHGs with
Reduced Carbon Emissions.
In summary, humans need to be more responsible for their -
(I) own health because health
budgets are progressively straining as explained in 'inter alia' "The
Coming Generational Storm: What You Need to Know about America's Economic Future"
in
Section 3 II.(a);
and
(II) their
Personal Carbon
Footprint to safeguard the economic and ecological
future of planet Earth.
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